Real Estate Data Bank

The Hawaiian real estate market continues to demonstrate symptoms of acute schizophrenia, thanks to a host of opposing trends, each competing to set the tone of the market. For instance, look at the Oahu real estate index: on the plus side, fueling the feeling that we are in a rising real estate market, note how residential sales and average rental levels are moving higher. On the minus side of the ledger, taking wind out of sale’s sails, the average for time on market (the time it takes to sell a unit) went up, and average prices went down.

In the face of all this good and bad news, what’s out there that’s keeping the market strong? It’s not the second home market: sales in all the resort areas, save for Waikiki, have been slowing down, with prices to follow. Indeed, the overall speculation index slipped some 16 percent, bespeaking lower demand (and in synch with lower visitor counts).

But, if not the high-end of the market, what? It is the basic housing market doing well: see how Oahu condo sales are up 2.5 percent from last year, as is Oahu condo prices, 6.8 percent. Indeed, condos statewide are bubbling up nicely, indicating the need for basic housing at more affordable prices. Only one island, Kauai, has felt lower prices in the condo market. It looks like the economic recovery has had an effect, across all income ranges.

Time will tell if sales will continue upwards ... and if prices will continue upwards, as well. At some point in time, this might begin to pinch the pocketbooks of local buyers: then, sales will begin to fall off. However, interest rate trends are NOT hurting anyone’s pocket: a double-digit drop across the entire range of rates can only help buyers feel “richer” than last year. Coupled with gains in income levels, the purchasing power of consumers has grown nicely.

	Latest month	Previous month	Year previous	Percent change from a year ago
HAWAII BUSINESS REAL ESTATE INDEX
Index (1972 = 100)	130.5	222.9	233.1	-44.0%
Components:
Resales/number	672	660	650	3.4%
Avg. resale price/$	250,723	252,188	288,341	-13.0%
Avg. time on market/days	113	117	73	54.8%
New residential permits/number	265	170	222	19.4%
Avg Single-family rents/$month	$1,631	$1,450	--	-100.0%
HAWAII BUSINESS SPECULATION INDEX
Index (1972 = 100)	114.1	114.5	137.0	-16.7%
Components:
Waikiki condo resales	73	65	72	1.4%
Kihei condo resales	56	53	63	-11.1%
Kaanapali condo resales	14	14	23	-39.1%
Kona condo resales	35	35	46	-23.9%
Poipu condo resales	9	13	15	-40.0%
Total Hawaii Condo Resales	605	580	590	2.5%
SALES INDICATORS
Oahu single-family and condo resales	672	660	650	3.4%
Maui single-family and condo resales	214	134	218	-1.8%
Big Island single-family and condo resales	205	193	178	15.2%
Kauai single-family and condo resales	69	76	84	-17.9%
State single-family and condo resales	1,160	1,063	1,130	2.7%

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