Sandy Gears

In February, the market was cooking. In March, America went to war. What happened? Not unlike the drive to Baghdad, the residential real estate market slowed a bit, but carried forth pretty well. The campaign commander, General Lee Low-Interest Rates, should be proud.

For instance, last month, Oahu's index went up 16.6 percent, driven by a big jump in sales, prices and permits. This month, the index went up only a third of that, held back by sales, prices and permits. The most volatile was permits. Prices rose only 7 percent, rather than last month's 14 percent. And sales grew only by 27 percent, as opposed to 56 percent.

Statewide, sales slowed similarly, in sync with Oahu: they grew 16 percent overall, verses 39 percent last month. Big Island sales accelerated, while Maui decelerated. Prices? Overall, price changes were pretty muted, with the following exceptions: Maui's single family prices rose 23 percent, vs. 8 percent last month. On the other hand, Oahu condo prices slowed to a year-to-year climb of 14 percent, compared to 23 percent last month.

Turning to the speculation index, which measures offshore buying against local demand for condos, again it seems a bit of sand got into those gears and got the market to downshift. Indeed, sales in Waikiki were down from last month, as well as down from the same month in 2002. This was not the case in the outer island markets, where Kihei, Kaanapali and Kona all enjoyed sales boosts. But what is driving the market is the strong sales of condos for local residents, particularly those on Oahu.

	Latest month	Previous month	Year previous	Percent change from a year ago
HAWAII BUSINESS REAL ESTATE INDEX
Index (1972 = 100)	254.8	257.7	241.6	+5.5%
Components:
Resales/number	872	891	687	+26.9%
Avg. resale price	$237,477	$235,491	$221,361	+7.3%
Avg. time on market/days	33	35	37	-13.1%
New home contracts	180	193	145	+24.1%
New residential permits/number	183	285	402	-54.5%
Avg Single-family rents/$month	$1,766	$1,780	$1,739	+1.6%
HAWAII BUSINESS SPECULATION INDEX
Index (1972 = 100)	104.6	107.2	117.0	-10.5%
Components:
Waikiki condo resales	93	101	98	-5.1%
Kihei condo resales	53	57	46	+15.2%
Kaanapali condo resales	17	12	12	+41.7%
Kona condo resales	55	45	38	+44.7%
Poipu condo resales	4	15	6	-33.3%
Total Hawaii Condo Resales	783	792	631	+24.1%
SALES INDICATORS
Oahu single-family and condo resales	872	891	687	+26.9%
Maui single-family and condo resales	205	208	218	-6.0%
Big Island single-family and condo resales	258	237	232	+11.2%
Kauai single-family and condo resales	84	94	83	+1.2%
State single-family and condo resales	1,419	1,430	1,220	+16.3%

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