Canadian Tourists are Boycotting the U.S. Here’s What That Means for Hawai‘i

Canadians have long been Hawai‘i’s second-largest source of foreign visitors, behind Japan, but this year many are staying home or choosing other destinations. 

The reasons are varied, but the main one was largely avoidable – President Trump’s pugnacious comments aimed at Canada’s leaders, but even more importantly, at its 41 million citizens. 

In the first seven months of the year, more than 245,000 Canadians came to Hawai‘i, down 9.4% from the first seven months of 2024 and 27.3% from the first seven months of 2019, the last year before the pandemic interrupted normal tourism patterns, according to the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.   

Although the Islands receive far more Japanese visitors (an estimated 288,168 more in 2024, according to data from the Hawai‘i Tourism Authority), Canadians are “oftentimes registering ahead of Japan in relation to some of the key performance metrics,” says Colin Wood, a Canadian citizen and senior account director at Hawai‘i Tourism Canada. For instance, year-to-date July 2025 data published by the HTA indicates that Canadian visitors’ average stay of 11.36 days is nearly double that of Japanese visitors, who average 5.99 days.  

HTA also estimates that in the first seven months of 2025, Canadian visitors spent $635.3 million while Japanese spent $551.7 million. That works out to about $2,590 per person per trip for Canadian visitors versus $1,472 per person per trip on average for Japanese tourists.   

“So it’s interesting, right?” says Wood. “Because I think the perception is that Japan is leaps and bounds ahead of Canadians in terms of visitation and spend and all those metrics, but that’s not always the case.” 

Still, the amount of money spent by Canadian visitors in the first seven months of 2025 is down 4.9%, from $668.3 million in the same period of 2024, and 7.5% lower, from $686.1 million, in 2019. That’s a deficit already being felt by hotels, restaurants and other businesses in the tourism industry. Even more worrisome – the normal peak period for Canadian tourists is the upcoming winter season. 

A few local restaurateurs emailed impact statements to Hawaii Business via the Hawaii Restaurant Association. Mike Palmer, managing partner of Kuhio Avenue Food Hall, wrote: “We have noticed a decline in tourism, including a drop in Canadian tourists. From my understanding there has been about a 5-6% drop in Canadians visiting Hawai‘i compared to last year, and we have noticed that drop at restaurants, especially in Waikīkī.  This is in addition to a decrease from other countries such as Korea (-8%) and Australia (-10%) compared to 2024.” 

Javier Barberi, owner of Mala Ocean Tavern in Waikīkī and Coco Deck Lahaina and Pizza Paradiso on Maui, stated: “Recent Hawai‘i Tourism Authority figures show Canadian visitor arrivals to Maui remain significantly lower (April 2025 was down 28% compared to April 2019) and while Canadians spend more per day on average when compared to the average [in 2019], the reduced numbers have translated to fewer seatings, especially in our breakfast and lunch service. Our restaurant has seen a notable decline in Canadian visitors this year, and we have been working hard to ensure that they go home with great memories to share with their neighbors.” 

Zooming Out 

It’s not just Hawai‘i – all of the U.S. is experiencing a decline of Canadian tourism. According to new data from Statistics Canada, Canadian road trips to the U.S. – their primary mode of entry – fell by 33% this June compared to June 2024, following a 38% decline in May. Air travel from Canada also saw a 22% year-over-year decrease. June marked the sixth consecutive month of sharp drops in Canadian inbound travel, with double-digit year-over-year declines in both car and air travel to the U.S. every month since April.  

While the unfavorable exchange rate plays a role ($1 CAD / $0.73 USD at the time of publication), escalating geopolitical tensions appear to be the primary driver behind Canadians staying away.  

These tensions stem from various actions and statements by the Trump administration. For instance, on July 10 President Donald Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian goods, effective August 1, citing a purported “flow of fentanyl” across the border as justification.  

The latest friction in the ongoing tariff negotiations emerged after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s July 30 announcement that Canada will join France and the United Kingdom in recognizing a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in September.  

President Trump swiftly responded on his social media platform the following day, posting, “Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them.” 

But the tone was set much earlier by Trump’s recurring annexation rhetoric, including this comment made during a Fox News interview in June: “Frankly, Canada should be the 51st state, they really should. Because Canada relies entirely on the United States, we don’t rely on Canada.”  

Trump has also publicly made jabs at Canadian leadership, such as referring to then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “governor” of the “Great State of Canada.” Such sentiments have been echoed by other U.S. officials, further exacerbating the strained relationship. 

Déjà Vu  

Some Canadians feel an affinity for Hawai‘i because of its own history of having its sovereignty forcibly trampled. Trump’s rhetoric about Canada becoming the “51st state” evokes injustices that led to Hawai‘i becoming the 50th.  

The Hawaiian Kingdom, a globally recognized sovereign nation with its own constitutional monarchy and diplomatic ties, was overthrown in 1893, led by a small group of American and European businessmen with the support of U.S. Marines. Their aim was for U.S. annexation.   

The overthrow was investigated in The Blount Report, commissioned by President Grover Cleveland, which concluded that the United States was complicit in the lawless overthrow of the legitimate, peaceful government of Hawai‘i. With President Cleveland’s opposition, the first two annexation treaties failed in the Senate. 

In 1897, two Hawaiian organizations actively resisted the third annexation attempt: The Hui Kālai‘āina gathered 17,000 signatures petitioning for the monarchy’s restoration, while the Hui Aloha ‘Āina collected approximately 21,000 signatures protesting annexation. The 1896 census  recorded 39,504 Native Hawaiians, and even accounting for the significant number of people who may have signed both petitions, these documents provided evidence that the majority of Native Hawaiians did not consent to the overthrow of their homeland’s leaders. 

Their resistance was disregarded when President William McKinley signed the Newlands Resolution, leading to the unilateral annexation of Hawai‘i in 1898. Hawai‘i became the 50th state in 1959.  

Given that history, new threats of annexation of Canada can’t easily be dismissed as theoretical.  

“Elbows Up” 

Polls indicate that Canadians’ favorable outlook toward the U.S. is plummeting. One survey, conducted by the Pew Research Center this spring, found that while 55% of Canadian respondents consider America to be their most important ally, 59% now view America to be their greatest threat.  

Merchandize emblazoned with slogans like “Canada is Not For Sale” and “Elbows Up” (a hockey defensive tactic symbolizing a defiant stance and readiness to push back) are gaining popularity in Canada.  

A growing number of Canadians are now boycotting U.S. tourism and goods, instead opting to explore their own country or other parts of the globe and making a concerted effort to buy more Canadian products.  

A Longwoods International study conducted in April found that 60% of Canadians are less likely to travel to the U.S. in the next year due to current American policies, trade practices and political statements. Of those, 36% had already canceled planned trips. 

“The main reason why Canadians are upset is really the ‘51st state’ rhetoric and [Trump] threatening to annex our country,” says Canadian YouTuber Guard The Leaf, who said he didn’t want to reveal his name on his popular channel because of safety concerns.  

After hearing stories about foreigners being detained, interrogated and deported upon arriving at American airports, Guard The Leaf says he doesn’t want to risk being detained simply because he runs a channel critical of Trump and his policies. Despite the boycott, he says he might need to cross the border “whether it’s a family emergency or something, because,” like many Canadians, “I do have friends and family in the U.S.” 

His channel bio, in part, reads, “Guard The Leaf is a proudly Canadian voice covering the rising tensions between Canada and the U.S., from trade and tourism to sovereignty and survival. If it affects Canada, we talk about it. This channel is about standing up for Canadian independence, calling out disrespect, and making sure our side of the story gets told, because no one else will.” Since posting his first video in late April, he’s already uploaded more than a hundred videos and amassed over 63,400 subscribers as of September 3. 

Guard The Leaf frequently uploads videos about the decline of Canadian tourism in America, commenting on news footage that reports on what’s driving the decrease and its impact on different destinations’ economies, including videos specifically on Maine, Buffalo, Las Vegas, Florida and, yes, Hawai‘i. 

“The media is portraying it as being a tariff issue or the currency exchange. But if that’s what the message is being delivered, then many U.S. citizens may not know that we’re actually pissed off with the annexation and 51st threats,” he says. 

When asked how Trump’s second term compares to his first, Guard The Leaf says, “It’s 100% different. I mean, during his first term, I was still going to the U.S. Yes, he did impose tariffs on us and there were things going on, but it wasn’t to this extent.” 

Guard The Leaf acknowledges in his video titled “Hawaii’s Tourism in CRISIS Without Canadian Visitors” that although Hawai‘i is “considered a solid Democrat stronghold, … they’re not putting enough pressure where it matters – on Washington.”  

He says his decision not to travel to Hawai‘i for the foreseeable future hit especially hard as he and his family used to frequently travel here. “My first visit was in 2010. It was actually for my sister’s wedding. She got married on Maui and when I came, there was something about Hawai‘i, the people and just the nature, that I loved it the second I got at the airport.”  

Guard The Leaf’s fondness for the Islands even led to him and his wife deciding to get married on O‘ahu in 2018. Regardless, he still doesn’t feel comfortable coming back anytime soon. “Every state in the U.S., including Hawai‘i,” has “Republican supporters, and not all of them, but you know, there are still going to be supporters that are going to be repeating the rhetoric and annexation threats and whatever else, right?”  

For a video titled “Canadian Tourists Are Spending Elsewhere Now, Here’s Proof,” Guard The Leaf asked viewers who had canceled or scrapped planned trips to the U.S. to comment where they are going instead and how much money they’ll be spending elsewhere. Several comments featured in that video highlighted money originally earmarked for Hawai‘i trips being redirected elsewhere: 

 – “Cancelled our trip to Hawaii. Spending that $10,000 + to take Via Rail to Montreal and Quebec City.” 

– “My wife and I have gone to Maui 9 times in the last 10 years. We will not step foot into the U.S. and spend our money there until the orange clown is out of the White House. This year we are going to the Philippines.” 

– “We cancelled a trip to Hawaii and went to Bali. Hawaii lost $36k.” 

– “Cancelled my trip to San Diego and Hawaii. We are currently travelling in Amsterdam and the UK instead. I estimate we will be spending about $14,000 to $15,000.” 

A Special Case? 

On the bright side, Hawai‘i is enduring the Canadian boycott on U.S. tourism better than most other American destinations. “Currently, the statistics are telling us that there’s a range of U.S. travel by Canadians that has been reduced between 20 to 30%, depending on the metric,” but there’s been “a considerably smaller downturn when we talk about Canadians visiting Hawai‘i”, says Wood.  

He attributes this to the popular perception that the Islands have both a geographical and cultural separation from the rest of the States. “I think Canadians’ considerations around travel to Hawai‘i are different because they appreciate that the destination is different,” says Wood. “One of the things that I found myself using in relation to language when we’re communicating out about Hawai‘i within the Canadian market is we refer back to ‘the Aloha spirit’ and the welcoming nature of Hawai‘i and Hawaiians. … It seems within the Hawaiian DNA to be welcoming, to encourage positive experiences from mindful travelers that are coming to Hawai‘i.” 

Hawaii Business spoke to one Canadian couple still planning to visit the Island of Hawai‘i in November for their third time. Jean Mcrae, a retiree from British Columbia, says her past two trips have “been very pleasant. … It’s an easy holiday. People are very friendly, and the service is nice.” 

McRae says she feels Canada-U.S. relations are “a bit strained” because of the tariffs and “accusations and comments that have been leveled, mostly by the President but also by others, against Canada.”  

This has led her and her family to alter some of their decision-making. “We actually just returned from a trip to the Yukon. Originally, we had plans to go to Alaska, but we decided that we wouldn’t do that this time.”  

But McRae says visiting Hawai‘i feels different than other parts of the U.S. for a few reasons. “Part of it is the distance from the mainland United States,” she says, and the culture feels different, too: “I think the indigenous Hawaiian presence, that’s something that, you know, we’ve enjoyed very much. … I think it’s also the politics. The fact that it’s a Democratic state makes it feel a little less like we might run into any problem.” She says she plans on spending about $6,000 to $7,000 on her upcoming trip. 

Snowbird Season and Beyond 

Looking ahead, the decline of Canadian tourists may hit Hawai‘i harder. That’s because the most popular season for Canadians to travel is winter, when ‘snowbirds’ flock to warm-weather places to escape the cold.  

“Canadians tend to come at times when it’s going to be the shoulder season in relation to U.S. visits. It’s a little different from the Japanese visitation pattern,” says Wood, so Canadian tourists are seen as especially important “because they kind of balance out the overall visitation over the course of the year.” 

During a follow-up conversation with Guard The Leaf, he mentioned that he’s heard some of his compatriots say they are following through with trips to the U.S. booked before geopolitical tensions escalated, because cancelling the trips would be too costly. He anticipates that once these pre-scheduled trips conclude by year-end, Hawai‘i and the broader U.S. will likely experience an even sharper decline in Canadian tourism in 2026. 

In one promising sign, Wood noted: “WestJet, one of the two major Canadian airlines bringing Canadians to Hawai‘i, has released its winter flight schedule and has increased its total seats to Hawai‘i while reducing capacity on many continental U.S. flights. I see that as a very positive sign that they are anticipating a stronger winter for Hawai‘i visits from Canada.” 

However, the outlook is not entirely positive. Sean Dee, EVP and Chief Commercial Officer at OUTRIGGER Hospitality Group, said in an email that the company’s Hawai‘i resorts and hotels had a strong start to the year before conditions changed. “Q1 2025 performance exceeded the same period in 2024, signaling robust early-season demand. However, recent developments, including the announced tariff, have led to elevated cancellations from April onward. Additionally, forward bookings for the upcoming core Canadian travel season (November to April) are pacing slower, indicating potential softening in the months ahead. This trend is more specific to our Hawai‘i portfolio, as our other international markets are not experiencing the same headwinds at this time.” 

Dee states that although Canadians constitute a “relatively modest portion” of their business, making up 5% of their guests on O‘ahu, 2.8% on the Island of Hawai‘i, 3% on Maui and 2.3% on Kaua‘i, “it remains a valued and strategic audience. We’re actively monitoring these trends and adjusting our approach to help re-engage Canadian travelers in the months ahead.” He says this includes collaborating with their “airline and wholesale partners to create compelling offers tailored to this audience. Whether through seasonal promotions, exclusive vacation packages or coordinated campaigns with travel trade partners, we’re focused on keeping Hawai‘i top-of-mind for Canadians considering a warm-weather escape.” 

 For the upcoming winter season, the hotel chain is hoping to entice Canadians to Hawai‘i’s warmer climes with a lineup of home-grown entertainment. 

“Last December, we were proud to debut ‘Auana, the first-ever resident Cirque du Soleil show in Hawai‘i, hosted at our craft property, OUTRIGGER Waikīkī Beachcomber Hotel,” Dee noted. “With Cirque’s global headquarters in Montréal, we see this as a special full-circle moment, welcoming a world-class Canadian cultural brand to the heart of Waikīkī. It’s an exciting new chapter in Hawai‘i entertainment and one more reason we invite our Canadian guests to rediscover the Islands with us.” 

Outstanding beaches, targeted entertainment and vacation package deals may not be enough to draw many Canadians back to the U.S.  

Asked if he has any advice for tourism leaders and public officials to navigate the situation, Guard The Leaf offered this response: “I’ll be honest, I think it’s a little too late, but if they do want to  see if they can get Canadians and international tours back, you have to be insistent here, right? 

“I know your bottom lines are hurting, but you have to be able to sympathize with why we are actually boycotting. Make sure that you’re addressing the real problem and sympathizing with Canadians, versus trying to convince us and sell us to come back.”